(August 2004) The latest IssuesPA/Pew poll shows that Pennsylvanians’ satisfaction with the direction of the state has dropped in recent months. Meanwhile, the race between presidential candidates George W. Bush and John F. Kerry remains a virtual dead heat – with Bush leading among likely voters and Kerry leading among registered voters.    

The Presidential Race

The presidential race in the battleground state of Pennsylvania remains very close, according to the latest IssuesPA/Pew poll.  Among likely voters George W. Bush has a lead – 45%-44% – over John Kerry. However, among all registered voters, Kerry has a 45%-43% lead over Bush.  Both fall within the margin of error (±4 percentage points among 861 likely voters; ±3 percentage points among 1006 registered voters in sample).

In April, the IssuesPA/Pew Poll showed the race tied 42%-42% among registered voters. With less than three months until the election and the race still a virtual dead heat, how successful each side is in turning out its voters on Election Day could very well determine the outcome of the race in Pennsylvania. 

While the overall numbers have not changed much and Pennsylvanians remain divided, the race appears a lot more settled than it did in April:

• A typical gender gap is now apparent.  Men prefer Bush by 50%-38%; women favor Kerry by 52%-35%.

• Voting patterns more closely follow party lines.  Bush gets 85% of the Republican vote, and Kerry gets 81% of the Democratic vote.  Independent voters divide 41% Kerry, 36% Bush. 

• The movement of young voters toward Kerry seen in national polls also is apparent in Pennsylvania – the Massachusetts Senator has surged to a 56%-26% lead among voters under 30. 

• Also mirroring recent national poll results, Ralph Nader’s support appears to be shrinking.  In the new poll, Nader is backed by only 3% of registered and likely voters.  Nader support stood at 5% in April. 

By region, Kerry now has a big lead among registered voters in Philadelphia and its suburbs, enjoying an almost two-to-one advantage (58% vs. 31% for Bush) in the Southeast region.  Bush turns the tables (59% vs. 29% for Kerry) in the less populous South Central region.  Kerry has only a slight edge in the Southwest (46%-41%), despite the high level of economic discontent, the party ID advantage enjoyed by the Democrats, and his wife’s links to the region.  Bush leads in the rest of the state (48%-40%), dominated by smaller communities. 

No single issue stands out as the main concern of Pennsylvania voters in this presidential election year.  Roughly equal numbers of voters identify the economy (17%), Iraq (17%), health care (17%) and terrorism/homeland security (16%) as the number one issue affecting their vote for president, and another 13% pick American jobs and foreign competition.  As seen nationally, Bush is overwhelmingly preferred by those who care most about terrorism (71%-22%), but Kerry has an edge with voters who name any of the other four issues in the top five.

The track record of past polls in incumbent races suggests that most of the undecided vote ultimately goes to the challenger.  Kerry seems to have the edge with Pennsylvania voters who do not express a candidate preference at this time.  Six in 10 (58%) of undecided voters are women, and they are almost twice as likely to self-identify as Democrats than as Republicans (33% vs. 18%).  Undecided voters are most likely to name the economy (20%) and health care (19%), and Iraq (14%) as the issue that will most affect their vote for president, while only 8% say terrorism is the top issue.  

The U.S. Senate Race

Incumbent Arlen Specter has emerged from his narrow victory in the April GOP primary as the clear leader in the race for U.S. Senate.  Senator Specter now leads U.S. Representative Joe Hoeffel, his Democratic challenger, by double-digits among all registered voters (54%-36%) and among likely voters (56%-36%).  Geographically, Hoeffel makes a race of it only in his home turf of Southeastern PA, where he leads Specter (who is also from the Philadelphia area) by 47% to 43%.  As many as a third (33%) of Democratic voters in Pennsylvania are inclined to cross party lines and support the incumbent Republican, generally regarded as a political moderate.  And about a third (32%) of Kerry supporters back Specter.  In contrast, far fewer Republicans (12%) and Bush supporters (13%) declare themselves for Hoeffel. 

With well over 50% support in the poll, Specter is in a good position, but it is too early to consider him a prohibitive favorite.  Other statewide surveys have shown that the vast majority of Pennsylvania voters (two-thirds or more) don’t know enough about Hoeffel to have an opinion of him. 

Perceptions of State Issues and Political Leaders

More Keystone state residents now are dissatisfied with the way things are going in Pennsylvania than are satisfied (49% vs. 44%).  That is not quite as negative as the U.S. public’s view of the direction of the country (58% dissatisfied in a late July Newsweek poll), but nonetheless represents a recent low point for the state.  In April, Pennsylvanians were almost evenly split in their view of the way things are going in their state (48% satisfied vs. 46% dissatisfied).  One year ago, they were mostly positive about the direction of the state (51% satisfied vs. 41% dissatisfied in September 2003). 

Economic concerns continue to be perceived as the top problem facing Pennsylvania (48%), with jobs being the specific economic issue most often cited by the statewide public (27%), followed by taxes (13%).  Health care-related issues are cited by 12% overall, followed by education (8%).

Asked to rate the job state government is doing in dealing with important issues, 23% give an excellent or good rating, 54% an only fair rating, and 20% a poor rating.  In the last two surveys, a somewhat larger number (28%) thought state government deserved a positive rating of excellent/good.

While the number of Pennsylvanians who express a lot or some confidence in the state legislature as a whole (64%) and their own state representative and senator (71%) are essentially the same as in previous surveys, Governor Rendell’s rating has slipped to 59% from 64% in April.   Rendell’s confidence rating is actually up marginally in Southeastern PA, where he previously served as Mayor of Philadelphia (77% now vs. 72% in April),  but is down in areas outside of the Southeast region (51% now vs. 60% in April).  His rating among political Independents has slipped from 69% to 60% over this same period.

About the IssuesPA/Pew Poll and Survey Methodology

The IssuesPA/Pew Poll is a core component of the Pennsylvania Economy League’s IssuesPA initiative. Princeton Survey Research Associates International (PSRAI) conducted the poll for IssuesPA. Funding for the IssuesPA/Pew Poll was provided by The Pew Charitable Trusts.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,252 Pennsylvania adults, 18 years and older, including 1,006 registered voters and 861 likely voters.  The interviews were conducted from August 13-21, 2004.  Likely voters were identified through a series of questions about voting intentions, past voting history, and familiarity with the voting process.  The basic method was developed by Paul Perry, Gallup’s chief methodologist, in the 1950s, and has been updated in response to changes in the electorate, the voting process, and the switch from personal interviews to telephone survey methodology.  The likely voter model used for this survey assumes a turnout rate of approximately 55% for the statewide voting-age population, somewhat higher than the turnout in 2000 and comparable to the turnout in the 1992 presidential election.

The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points for results based on total adults and registered voters and ±4 percentage points for results based on likely voters. Smaller subgroups are subject to larger margins of sampling error.  In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting surveys can also introduce error or bias to poll results.

More polling data, including in-depth polling data on health care policy such as patient safety, the uninsured, and medical liability, will be released Sept. 8, 2004.

About IssuesPA

IssuesPA (www.IssuesPA.net) is a nonpartisan statewide awareness project focused exclusively on raising the issues most critical to Pennsylvania’s economic future. The Pennsylvania Economy League initially launched IssuesPA to promote issue awareness around the 2002 gubernatorial election. Post-election, the project has been transformed into the leading resource on state-level issues and policies in Pennsylvania, coupled with a dynamic, multi-media outreach strategy. IssuesPA is funded in part by The Pew Charitable Trusts, The Pittsburgh Foundation and The William Penn Foundation.

About The Pennsylvania Economy League

The Pennsylvania Economy League (PEL) is an independent, nonprofit public policy research organization. PEL is a force for positive change -- the state's leading regionally based, statewide public policy organization. Working with Pennsylvania’s public and private sectors, PEL provides independent research and insight on emerging issues to stimulate public and private action to make Pennsylvania a better place to live, work, and do business. PEL’s goal is to create a knowledgeable corporate and civic audience that will ensure the Commonwealth’s economic competitiveness.

About The Pew Charitable Trusts

The Pew Charitable Trusts (www.pewtrusts.org) serves the public interest by providing information, policy solutions and support for civic life. Based in Philadelphia, with an office in Washington, D.C., the Trusts make investments to provide organizations and citizens with fact-based research and practical solutions for challenging issues. With approximately $4.1 billion in dedicated assets, in 2003 the Trusts committed more than $143 million to 151 nonprofit organizations.

Click here for Bush/Kerry Trial Heat table, including breakout by likely voters, regions, party ID, gender, age, and most important issue. 

Click here for Specter/Hoeffel Trial Heat table, including breakout by likely voters, regions, party ID, gender, age, and presidential support.