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IssuesPA/Pew Poll: Political Values, Party I.D. and the 2006 Election

IssuesPA/Pew pollster Larry Hugick from Princeton Survey Research Associates International takes a look at the political values that distinguish Republicans from Democrats - and the potential candidates for the 2006 election for Governor and U.S. Senate.
In terms of their political values

In terms of their political values, what most distinguishes Republicans from Democrats in Pennsylvania? The new IssuesPA/Pew poll provides some answers. Based on an analysis of response to 21 forced-choice "balanced alternative" items measuring a variety of political values and orientations, the biggest values differences between adherents of the two major parties in Pennsylvania are in attitudes toward foreign policy assertiveness and government's role in helping the needy. This is consistent with the findings of a national survey last December by The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to believe military strength is the best way to ensure peace. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to feel government should do more to help the needy, even if it means taking on more debt or raising taxes.

As shown in the following table, after these two areas, views about the adequacy of government benefits for the poor, perceptions about the level of corporate profits, concern about preserving the environment, priority given to international affairs vs. domestic problems, and opinion about the government's role in protecting morality are most strongly related to party identification in the Keystone state.

Values That Most Divide Republicans and Democrats

 

--Republicans--

--Democrats--

 

 

(1/2)

Margin

(1/2)

Margin

Diff. Index

 

%

 

%

 

 

(1) Best way to ensure peace is through military strength/(2) Good diplomacy is best way

38/44

-6

16/75

-59

53

(1) Government should do more to help the needy, even if it means deeper debt or raising taxes/(2) Government can’t afford to do much more

40/49

-9

66/24

42

51

(1) Poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return/(2) Have hard lives because benefits don’t go far enough

44/39

5

24/63

-39

44

(1) Business corporations make too much profit/(2) Most make a fair and reasonable amount of profit

47/48

-1

67/28

39

40

(1) We should do whatever it takes to protect the environment/(2) Efforts have gone too far

63/30

33

84/13

71

38

(1) It’s best for the future of our country to be active in world affairs/(2) Pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate on problems here at home

46/44

2

28/63

-35

37

(1) Government should do more to protect morality/(2) I worry government is getting too involved in the issue

54/38

16

37/58

-21

37

How to read this table: The Difference Index scores were calculated by subtracting the Democrat margin from the Republican margin. Higher scores indicate larger differences in the views of Republicans and Democrats.

How do political Independents in Pennsylvania - critical in determining the outcome of statewide elections - compare with Republicans and Democrats on these defining political values orientations? On balance, Pennsylvania Independents have political values that are closer to those of Democrats than they are to those of Republicans. Most notably, majorities of Independents take "Democratic" positions in endorsing good diplomacy, not military strength, as the best way to achieve peace (63%), believing the country should focus more on domestic problems (63%), and having reservations about government involvement in the issue of morality (55%). In addition, about as many Independents as Democrats think "we should do whatever it takes to protect the environment" (80% vs. 84%).

Political Values and Opinion of Ed Rendell

Favorability ratings for Governor Ed Rendell divide 58% favorable/34% unfavorable in the new poll. Opinion of Rendell is not as closely linked to specific political values orientations as party identification is. As shown in the table below, the values positions most closely associated with opinion of Rendell are evaluations of government performance, views about the adequacy of government benefits for the poor, trust in elected officials, opinion about the worth of government regulation, and views about whether officials in Harrisburg make an effort to stay in touch with their constituents. In sum, opinion of the Governor is more about general feelings toward government and political officeholders, and less about specific ideology or policy orientations.

Values Most Strongly Related to Rendell Opinion

 

Rendell
--Favorable--

Rendell
-Unfavorable-

 

 

(1/2)

Margin

(1/2)

Margin

Diff. Index

 

%

 

%

 

 

(1) Government is almost always wasteful and inefficient/
(2) Often does a better job than people give it credit for

53/40

13

69/23

46

33

(1) Poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return/(2) Have hard lives because benefits don’t go far enough

30/58

-28

44/39

5

33

(1) Most elected officials care what people like me think/
(2) Most elected officials don’t care

35/58

-23

20/76

-56

33

(1) Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest/(2) Usually does more harm than good

49/45

4

31/59

-28

32

(1) Elected officials in Harrisburg lose touch with the people pretty quickly/(2) Try hard to stay in touch with voters

48/45

3

64/30

34

31

How to read this table: The Difference Index scores were calculated by subtracting the Unfavorable margin from the Favorable margin. Higher scores indicate larger differences in those with favorable views and those with unfavorable views.

Political Values and Opinion of Rick Santorum

Overall favorability ratings for Senator Rick Santorum are also positive (49% favorable/28% unfavorable). The Senator's efforts in promoting faith-based initiatives and otherwise bringing his religious beliefs to the realm of government policy have not gone unnoticed. In contrast to opinion of Governor Rendell, opinion of Senator Santorum is most strongly related to one particular political values orientation - beliefs about the role of the government in promoting morality. Fifty-two percent of those with a favorable opinion of Santorum favor more involvement of government in protecting morality in society; 68% of those with an unfavorable opinion say they are worried about government getting too involved with the issue of morality. At least for now, this does not work to the Senator's advantage, as more Pennsylvanians have reservations about government's role in protecting morality as favor an expanded government role in this area (55% vs. 41%).

After beliefs about government involvement in protecting morality, the political values orientations most associated with opinion of Santorum would seem to reflect his incumbent status, his support for an aggressive military policy, and his social conservation.

Values Most Strongly Related to Santorum Opinion

 

Santorum
--Favorable--

Santorum
-Unfavorable-

 

 

(1/2)

Margin

(1/2)

Margin

Diff. Index

 

%

 

%

 

 

(1) Government should do more to protect morality/(2) I worry government is getting too involved in the issue

52/42

10

26/68

-42

52

(1) Best way to ensure peace is through military strength/(2) Good diplomacy is best way

32/54

-22

17/73

-56

34

(1) Most elected officials care what people like me think/
(2) Most elected officials don’t care

37/57

-20

21/74

-53

33

(1) Students should be taught the Biblical account of creation/(2) What the Bible says about how life began isn’t science

58/33

25

41/47

-6

31

How to read this table: The Difference Index scores were calculated by subtracting the Unfavorable margin from the Favorable margin. Higher scores indicate larger differences in those with favorable views and those with unfavorable views.

Political Values and Opinion of Bob Casey, Jr.

State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr.'s favorability ratings are 52% favorable/12% unfavorable - more positive than those of both Rendell and Santorum. At this point, however, Rick Santorum's likely Democratic opponent for the U.S. Senate in 2006 is not especially well-defined politically. This is not likely to be maintained over the course of a tough campaign for the U.S. Senate - ultimately he will become more sharply defined politically in the public mind. Only two political values orientations score even moderately high in the strength of their relationship to opinion of Casey: views of government performance and trust in elected officials.

Values Most Strongly Related to Casey Opinion

 

Casey
--Favorable--

Casey
-Unfavorable-

 

 

(1/2)

Margin

(1/2)

Margin

Diff. Index

 

%

 

%

 

 

(1) Government is almost always wasteful and inefficient/
(2) Often does a better job than people give it credit for

54/39

15

70/24

46

31

(1) Most elected officials care what people like me think/
(2) Most elected officials don’t care

33/61

-28

20/78

-58

30

(1) Elected officials in Harrisburg lose touch with the people pretty quickly/(2) Try hard to stay in touch with voters

50/44

6

63/34

29

23

How to read this table: The Difference Index scores were calculated by subtracting the Unfavorable margin from the Favorable margin. Higher scores indicate larger differences in those with favorable views and those with unfavorable views.

 

****** Larry Hugick is the Chairman of Princeton Survey Research Associates International, which prepared and conducted the survey for IssuesPA and Pew.



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