Articles

(March 2006) A new IssuesPA/Pew poll shows one-third of Pennsylvanians are undecided on who they’ll vote for in the 2006 gubernatorial campaign.

Among those polled, 29 percent said they were likely to vote for Governor Ed Rendell, a Democrat, and 35 percent likely to vote for presumptive Republican nominee Lynn Swann. That leaves 34 percent of voters categorized as swing voters who are open to voting for either candidate.

The table below tells the story.

Princeton Survey Research Associates conducted a telephone survey with more than 1,500 Pennsylvania adults statewide between March 14th and March 22nd. The Pew Charitable Trusts funded the poll.

According to 43 percent of registered voters, the candidates’ positions on issues will be the key factor determining who will receive their vote. Other factors include experience and qualifications (24 percent) and personal qualities and leadership ability (20 percent). Of the issues, 24 percent of voters surveyed said the issue of taxes is the most important, 17 percent said the economy/jobs, 11 percent said education, and 9 percent said healthcare.

Similar to 2002, Pennsylvania voters have some key issues they want candidates for Governor to address. The candidates’ positions on taxes, the economy, education and healthcare likely will be important parts of the discussion leading up to the November election.”

What are the impressions of the candidates for Governor?

Governor Rendell’s confidence ratings are down at the start of this election year. Among those surveyed, 55 percent said they have a lot or some confidence in the Governor to deal with important problems. That figure is four points below the 59 percent recorded last September and nine points below the 64 percent recorded just two years ago in April 2004. The Governor’s current personal favorability ratings mirror his confidence ratings – 53 percent of state residents view him favorably; 37 percent unfavorably.

As part of the poll, respondents were asked to describe the candidates in one word. When asked for a single word to describe Governor Rendell, 92 said “politician” while 71 said “good.” “Leader” and “crook” tied with 32 and “liar” rounded out the top 10 responses with 20.

Having achieved celebrity status as a professional football Hall of Fame wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers championship teams of the 1970s, Lynn Swann is generally liked by those who know him. Statewide, 39 percent of Pennsylvanians surveyed said they have a “favorable” impression of Swann; 17 percent have an “unfavorable” impression.

More than four in 10 of those surveyed said they draw a blank when asked their overall opinion of Swann. Fourteen percent said they’ve never heard of him; another 29% said they don’t know enough about him to have an opinion.

When asked to describe Swann in one word, 139 of those surveyed used “football/football player.” Sixty-seven said “honest;” 61 said “inexperienced.” Twenty-eight said “unknown;” 25 said “unqualified.”

On another front, what’s the level of confidence in the legislature?

According to poll results, it’s rebounding somewhat from the low point of 48 percent in November 2005.

Of those surveyed, 53 percent said they have a lot or some confidence in the legislature as a whole. That remains significantly below the confidence levels (ranging from 61 percent to 64 percent) recorded in IssuesPA/Pew polls from September 2003 to May 2005, before the legislative pay raise passed last summer.

Bottom line? It would appear the pay raise continues to sully the image of the legislature, even though it was rescinded several months ago.

IssuesPA will release the remainder of the March 2006 issuesPA/Pew Poll the week of April 3.

For more information, including the poll methodology, click on the following:

Report of Findings, March 2006 IssuesPA/Pew Poll, Part One