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For the umpteenth time, it appears that the state legislature may try to authorize slot machines at various venues across Pennsylvania - with Governor Rendell weighing in with his own proposal just one week before the 2004-2005 budget address and calling for swift action on property tax relief. Leaders in the House and Senate have re-entered the fray as well. What ultimately will happen?

Previous attempts to expand gambling to pay for property tax relief have failed to overcome a variety of hurdles. The most notable:

• Opposition to gambling at non-race track sites.
• Questions about revenues. Will they be reliable? Sustainable? Big enough?
• The debate about who should and shouldn't be allowed to have a license.
• The disposition of slot tax receipts.
• Indian tribe(s) wanting to enter the gambling scene in Pennsylvania.

Given all of these obstacles, why does this cat have so many lives? IssuesPA sought answers.

Why do it at all?

The most straightforward answer is big bucks. Various proposals promise large amounts of tax revenues, in some cases purported to exceed $1 billion. A billion dollars is a lot of new money, even though it represents only about 5% of the current state General Fund budget.

Second, gambling using slots machines, especially at racetracks, is generally acceptable to the majority of the public. A recent IssuesPA/Pew poll found citizens of Pennsylvania give low approval ratings to raising taxes. However, that's not the case for taxes they don't personally pay, or at least can avoid, such as the cigarette tax (just raised in January) and taxes on gambling.

Not only is a lot of money on the line, but the prospects of using a large portion of it for property tax reduction makes passage palatable to a number of lawmakers. The Governor and many legislators campaigned on a platform of reducing school property taxes. This is their opportunity - and now might just be the right time - to fulfill that promise without having to raise other taxes, which has been proposed in the past.

Also feeding the appetite for gambling is the state budget finalized in December - even though the 2003-04 fiscal year actually began last July 1st - that raised personal income taxes across the board. All 203 members of the state House of Representatives and half of the 50-member Senate seek re-election this year. Obviously, those who voted for the budget would prefer to go home at election time and boast about providing property tax relief - instead of just defending their votes to raise the state personal income tax.

Proponents? Opponents?

For several regions in Pennsylvania, the prospect of potential new state funding for key initiatives could attract votes from their legislators. Under one proposed scenario, facilities such as convention centers and arenas in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia could benefit. Municipalities hosting horse racing tracks often subscribe to the philosophy that slots will provide needed economic benefits. Also, remember one of the original catalysts for slots - providing an economic boost to the horse racing industry.

Still, it's important to remember there are a number of legislators who have absolutely no interest in supporting gambling based on philosophical beliefs - no matter how much money it generates or how those new-found funds would be spent. This is the case particularly in the Senate, where there's significant opposition to all proposals.

So what's next?

The legislature is back in session, and leaders say property tax reform and slots are on the agenda. However, given the complicated mix of potential disparate beneficiaries and the many and varied obstacles to passage, it will be difficult to come to a final agreement, even with a billion reasons to do it.

Is it possible for Pennsylvania to take this major step? Yes. But don't bet the house on it.