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(April 2004) Tied. Deadlocked. A horse race looms.

For anyone wondering if Pennsylvania would be a battleground in the upcoming November election for U.S. President - one that could sway the overall outcome - the April 2004 IssuesPA/Pew Poll removes most doubts.

President George W. Bush and U.S. Senator John F. Kerry were deadlocked 42%-42% in a test election among Pennsylvania registered voters that coincided with last month’s primary election. Independent Ralph Nader attracted 5% support; 11% were undecided or preferred someone else.

Princeton Survey Research Associates International (PSRAI) conducted the poll for IssuesPA. Funding for the survey was provided by The Pew Charitable Trusts.

The poll took the public pulse on national issues that will help Pennsylvanians make their decisions in the November election. With many experts saying Pennsylvania will play a prominent role in November, it’s important to know which issues matter the most to the state’s voters.

What are the key issues for Pennsylvanians?

Given a choice of 7 national issues, those responding to the IssuesPA/Pew Poll put Iraq (23%) and the economy (21%) at the top of their list, followed by health care (15%), terrorism/homeland security (13%) and the impact of foreign competition on American jobs (12%).

According to the poll results, President Bush is far and away the favorite of voters who see terrorism as the critical issue. Sen. Kerry, however, has an advantage of 10 points or more among voters who name each of the other four issues - the economy, Iraq, jobs, and health care.

The table below offers a breakdown of the key issues and demographics.

Bush/Kerry Trial Heat (Pennsylvania Registered Voters)

Note: Candidate support figures include leaners.

What’s the significance of the Presidential poll results?

Considering the timing of the poll, a tie may be a better sign for Sen. Kerry than it is for President Bush. After a major advertising blitz by the Bush campaign in Pennsylvania and other battleground states, the race hasn’t turned the President’s way in Pennsylvania.

Considering party loyalty alone, President Bush’s advantage over Sen. Kerry loyalty is small - 80% of Republican voters prefer President Bush, while 75% of Pennsylvania Democrats prefer Sen. Kerry. Further, registered Independent voters in Pennsylvania, whose votes could make the difference, favored Sen. Kerry, 40% to 35%.

PSRAI conducted telephone interviews from April 16-25 with 1,001 Pennsylvania adults ages 18 and over; 867 identified themselves as registered voters. The results have been statistically weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies. The overall margin of sampling error for results based on registered voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

More information from this in-depth poll is coming. IssuesPA will release polling data on what Pennsylvanians see as the key issues facing the Commonwealth, and how they feel about those issues. Stay tuned. Meanwhile, Election 2004 continues! And Pennsylvania is poised to play a big role in electing the nation’s next U.S. President.